The final results in New York’s 19th Congressional district have not been certified yet, so it’s still too early to compare the numbers, but the preliminary results are pretty revealing.
A whole lot of voters decided they couldn’t vote for either candidate.
Table 1 shows Sue Kelly vs. the Democrat from 1998 to 2006. Table 2 needs some work, but will eventually be similar, but broken down by county.
| Candidate | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 104,467 | 145,532 | 121,129 | 175,401 | 88,939 |
| Democrat | 56,378 | 85,871 | 44,967 | 87,429 | 92,514 |
| 162,843 | 233,403 | 168,098 | 264,834 | 183,459 |
About 20,000 more people cast votes for either the Democrat or the Republican this year, compared to the previous two mid-term elections, in 1998 and 2002. However, none of those additional voters cast their ballot in favor of the Republican candidate. Assuming that all of those who voted for the Democrat in 2004 voted for the Democrat this year, the additional 5,085 votes for John Hall were all annoyed former supporters of Sue Kelly. The rest couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat and abstained.
| County | Candidate | 2006 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dutchess | |||
| John Hall (D) | 19,796 | ||
| Michael Jaliman (D) | 17,666 | ||
| Sue Kelly (R) | 20,761 | 40,521 | |
| Orange | |||
| John Hall (D) | 28,618 | ||
| Michael Jaliman (D) | 25,530 | ||
| Sue Kelly (R) | 28,525 | 56,028 | |
| Putnam | |||
| John Hall (D) | 13,448 | ||
| Michael Jaliman (D) | 11,609 | ||
| Sue Kelly (R) | 14,714 | 28,461 | |
| Rockland | |||
| John Hall (D) | 3,921 | ||
| Michael Jaliman (D) | 4,217 | ||
| Sue Kelly (R) | 4,187 | 7,612 | |
| Westchester | |||
| John Hall (D) | 28,741 | ||
| Michael Jaliman (D) | 28,407 | ||
| Sue Kelly (R) | 22,082 | 42,779 |
I wouldn’t read too much into it. 2004 was a presidential election, 2006 was a mid-term. For real comparison, you should compare 2006 to 2002. Mid-term vs. mid-term. I bet you’ll see roughly the same order of magnitude in turnout.
Yeah, I realized that after I published, but I decided to go to sleep last night instead of updating the table.